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1. 发明授权

US08781981B1 Devices and methods for use in forecasting time evolution of states of variables in a domain 有权
标题翻译：用于预测域中变量状态的时间演化的设备和方法
公开(公告)号：US08781981B1
公开(公告)日：2014-07-15
申请号：US13405757
申请日：2012-02-27
申请人： Oscar Kipersztok , Uri Nodelman
发明人： Oscar Kipersztok , Uri Nodelman
IPC分类号： G06N5/00 , G06N5/04 , G06N7/00
CPC分类号： G06N5/00 , G06N5/04 , G06N7/00 , G06N7/005 , G06Q10/06
摘要： Devices and methods for use in forecasting the state of one or more of a plurality of variables within a domain are provided. One example method includes determining, at a processor, a first probability curve indicative of a probability of a change-in-state of the first variable over a first interval, the first probability defining a first substantially continuous time trajectory, determining, at the processor, a second probability curve indicative of a probability of a change-instate of the second variable over a second interval, the second probability defining a second substantially continuous time trajectory, the first interval at least partially overlapping with the second interval, and displaying, at a display device, the first and second probability curves substantially in real time, thereby permitting a user to compare the relative probabilities of the change-in-state of at least one of the first and second variables.
摘要翻译：提供了用于预测域内的多个变量中的一个或多个的状态的设备和方法。一个示例性方法包括在处理器处确定指示第一变量在第一间隔上的状态变化的概率的第一概率曲线，所述第一概率定义第一基本上连续的时间轨迹，在处理器处确定指示在第二间隔中第二变量的变化概率的第二概率曲线，所述第二概率定义第二基本上连续的时间轨迹，所述第一间隔至少部分地与第二间隔重叠，并且在显示装置，第一和第二概率曲线基本上实时地进行，从而允许用户比较第一和第二变量中的至少一个的状态变化的相对概率。

2. 发明授权

US08620852B1 Systems, methods, and computer program products for predictive accuracy for strategic decision support 有权
标题翻译：系统，方法和计算机程序产品，用于战略决策支持的预测准确性
公开(公告)号：US08620852B1
公开(公告)日：2013-12-31
申请号：US12969711
申请日：2010-12-16
申请人： Oscar Kipersztok , Uri Nodelman
发明人： Oscar Kipersztok , Uri Nodelman
IPC分类号： G06N5/00
CPC分类号： G06N7/005 , G06N5/04
摘要： Provided are improved systems, methods, and computer programs to facilitate predictive accuracy for strategic decision support using Continuous Time Bayesian Networks. A simple semantic is provided for both probabilistic and temporal relationships that can be automatically translated into functioning Bayesian and Continuous Time Bayesian Network formalisms and applied by a user for reasoning analysis, such as to assess a hypothesis or respond to a query with a probabilistic and temporal prediction of a future event.
摘要翻译：提供改进的系统，方法和计算机程序，以促进使用连续时间贝叶斯网络的战略决策支持的预测准确性。为概率和时间关系提供了一个简单的语义，可以将其自动转换为功能贝叶斯和连续时间贝叶斯网络形式，并由用户应用于推理分析，例如评估假设或响应具有概率和时间的查询预测未来事件。

3. 发明申请

US20050021485A1 Continuous time bayesian network models for predicting users' presence, activities, and component usage 有权
标题翻译：连续时间贝叶斯网络模型，用于预测用户的存在，活动和组件使用情况
公开(公告)号：US20050021485A1
公开(公告)日：2005-01-27
申请号：US10882068
申请日：2004-06-30
申请人： Uri Nodelman , Eric Horvitz
发明人： Uri Nodelman , Eric Horvitz
IPC分类号： G06Q10/10 , G06E1/00 , G05B13/02 , G06E3/00 , G06F15/16 , G06F15/18 , G06G7/00
CPC分类号： G06Q10/109
摘要： The present invention relates to a system and methodology to facilitate collaboration and communications between entities such as between automated applications, parties to a communication and/or combinations thereof. The systems and methods of the present invention include a service that supports collaboration and communication by learning predictive continuous time Bayesian models that provide forecasts of one or more aspects of a users' presence and availability. Presence forecasts include a user's current or future locations at different levels of location precision and usage of different devices or applications. Availability assessments include inferences about the cost of interrupting a user in different ways and a user's current or future access to one or more communication channels. The predictive models are constructed from data collected by considering user activity and proximity from multiple devices, in addition to analysis of the content of users' calendars, the time of day, and day of week, for example. Various applications are provided that employ the presence and availability information supplied by the models in order to facilitate collaboration and communications between entities.
摘要翻译：本发明涉及促进实体之间的协作和通信的系统和方法，例如在自动应用，通信方和/或其组合之间。本发明的系统和方法包括通过学习提供用户存在和可用性的一个或多个方面的预测的预测连续时间贝叶斯模型来支持协作和通信的服务。存在预测包括用户在不同级别的位置精度和不同设备或应用的使用的当前或将来的位置。可用性评估包括关于以不同方式中断用户的成本以及用户当前或未来访问一个或多个通信信道的推论。除了分析用户日历的内容，一天中的一天和一周中的一天之外，还通过考虑用户活动和多个设备的邻近度来收集的数据构建预测模型。提供了各种应用，其使用由模型提供的存在和可用性信息，以便于实体之间的协作和通信。

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