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1. 发明申请

US20090254475A1 PREDICTION MARKET MAKING METHOD AND APPARATUS 审中-公开
标题翻译：预测市场制作方法和装置
公开(公告)号：US20090254475A1
公开(公告)日：2009-10-08
申请号：US12061062
申请日：2008-04-02
申请人： David Pennock , Yiling Chen , Sharad Chandra Goel
发明人： David Pennock , Yiling Chen , Sharad Chandra Goel
IPC分类号： G06Q30/00 , G06Q20/00
CPC分类号： G06Q30/02 , G06Q20/10
摘要： Generally, a method and apparatus for making a prediction-based market including unconventional prediction options to market participants includes determining a prediction framework that includes a plurality of conditional scenarios. The method and apparatus includes calculating realization odds for each of the conditional scenarios using an approximation calculation technique and via an interface, receiving a plurality of predictions associated with selected conditional scenarios, each prediction having an associated value and building the prediction-based market using the predictor. The method and apparatus further includes updating realization odds for each of the conditional scenarios in the prediction framework using the approximation calculation technique and settling the predictions based at least on the updated realization odds.
摘要翻译：通常，用于制作包括市场参与者的非常规预测选项的基于预测的市场的方法和装置包括确定包括多个条件情景的预测框架。所述方法和装置包括使用近似计算技术来计算每个条件情景的实现可能性，并且经由接口，接收与所选条件情景相关联的多个预测，每个预测具有相关联的值并且使用预测因子所述方法和装置还包括使用近似计算技术来更新预测框架中的每个条件情景的实现可能性，并且至少基于更新的实现可能性来确定预测。

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